Beach

The beach was some of the best weather that I have seen in a while. Even thought it was so mild weatherwise. But a few of decided to drive home on Firday night and the weather was the worst I have ever driven in!! In VA while I was on 95, I encounter rain that was coming down so heavy I couldn't see 20 feet in front of my car!! It was insane, I was affiard to pull over because I couldn't see the shoulder or other cars already on the shoulder but kept going at the crawling speed of 25. All while everybody else slept in the car. That was a true learning experience.

Fireworks??

Fireworks but not from the ground for the fourth might be expect tomorrow night. According to accuweather.com here in pittsburgh we stand a good chance of seeing severe weather tomorrow late afternoon into the evening.

I'm a pyrotechnician with Zambelli fireworks and I will being shooting a show tomorrow night, and I'm personally praying for no rain. The show the largest in the region outside of downtown Pittsburgh. Here is my forecast for the rest of the week including tomorrow:

Independence Day: Partly cloudy, a chance of showers and thunderstorms, high 83. South wind between 5 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Fireworks time and after: Mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms likely, especially during the fireworks events, some of the storms could be severe. Low 66. Southwest wind between 7 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 81. West wind between 5 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be severe, with gusty winds. Low 61. West wind between 5 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: Partly cloudy, a chance of showers and thunderstorms before 9am. High 81.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, Low 60.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, High 80.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, Low 61. Sunday: Partly cloudy, High 86.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, Low 66.

Monday: Partly cloudy, High 87.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 64.

The next few days

During the past week I was at Synod assembly for the Lutheran church in SW PA. And this is the transition week. But over the next few days I plan on being out of town at the Outer Banks. A group of my friends and myself will be staying close to Kill Devil Hills and the house is right on the beach!! Looking at the weather it should be great until later in the week. Have a great beginning of summer everyone.

severe weather today 6/8/07

Ok, so here is an update to the forecast….. we are under a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 9pm tonight. The National storm prediction center has issued a Public outlook on these storms which they do with larger and more dangerous systems.

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1139 AM CDT FRI JUN 08 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY THRU EARLY TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY THRU EARLY TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

SOUTHEAST INDIANA

NORTHERN KENTUCKY
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE

MUCH OF OHIO

WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA

NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS WARM AND MOIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENHANCE STRONG LIFTING WITH THE FRONT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE EWD THRU MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR THAT A FEW ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP AND PRODUCE TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO INTO NWRN PA.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..MCCARTHY.. 06/08/2007

So what this generally is saying is that Large hail and Damaging winds will be our two problems in the Pittsburgh area. To the north however …

ADDITION...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR THAT A FEW ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP AND PRODUCE TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO INTO NWRN PA.

This means that some tornadoes are possible up north from Pittsburgh….

Attached below are maps that show some of this system forecast producers in forecast likelihood.

This shows the likelihood of hail in the Pittsburgh Area. You might think 30% isn't a big deal unless you know that 30% is actually a large number in this field. This means that some of us with most likely see some hail fall.

Around the Pittsburgh area the threat of Tornadoes is low but not completely to be ruled out. We will have to watch this...

The major threat from this system over and around the Pittsburgh area is wind damage. This damage could be significant if the right ingredients get going.

This is the current radar map from the region clearly showing a line of severe weather beginning to fire over the middle sections of Ohio. This is what we will have to watch over the next few hours. My advice is stay tuned to the local media (KDKA, WTAE, WPXI or on line sources such as the National weather service Pittsburgh) stay tune and prepare for some severe weather.

This week will be a little cooler than the last. It also a week that we should see some more rain around Pittsburgh this is a Pittsburgh thing with the Arts Festival.


Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers early, high 65.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, a slight chance of showers. low 43.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, high 70.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, low 52.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, high 83.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, low 66.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, a chance of showers and thunderstorms. high 86.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, a chance of showers and thunderstorms. low 60.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, high 81. Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, low 59.

it's not officially summer but feels like it

It's not officially summer in the meteorological world but it's going to feel like it outside here in the Pittsburgh area. Today and Thursday we will see above normal temperatures and pretty much no chance of rain. That all chances as the weekend approaches. On Friday Hurricane season begins I will post more on the season before Friday morning.

This Afternoon: Mostly sunny, High 88.

Tonight: Mostly clear, Low 63.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, High 87.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, Low 62.

Friday: Partly Cloudy, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the mid to late afternoon. High 85.

Friday Night: Partly Cloudy, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, before midnight. Low 63.

Saturday: Mostly Cloudy, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, Primarily during the afternoon. High 82.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 63.

Memorial Day

A chance of severe weather is beginning to appear for late afternoon and early evening tonight. This according to the Storms Prediction Center. Otherwise the weekend looks to have a chance of rain and thunderstorms. I don't think this will be a washout, and by Monday morning Parade's and services the likelihood of rain will be almost gone. Have a great safe weekend everybody.


This Afternoon: Partly Cloudy, a chance of showers and thunderstorms beginning late afternoon. High 84.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 59.


Saturday: Partly cloudy, a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 9am. High 80.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 58.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, a chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 81.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 58.

Memorial Day: Partly cloudy, a chance of showers and thunderstorms, early. High 75.

After the cookouts: Partly cloudy, Low 53.

Blogging again..... Forecast 5/23 - 5/25

The next few days look pretty nice with a threat of rain coming in over the weekend. Then on Saturday night into Sunday the models are showing a slight chance of some severe weather. I will be keeping an eye on it. And will update often if needed.

Tonight: Mostly clear, Low 58.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, High 83.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, Low 59.

Friday: Partly Cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. High 79.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 57.

Blog update

I will keep up with this blog now that the semester is over, I will be beginning to blog again on Wednesday May 23. It will be like the previous blog but I will have more time to go into more detail.

Hurricanes season preview

As we are just one month away from the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, I figured that I might as well write a little preview from my view on this upcoming season. This season begins on June 1st and ends on November 30 th. As we begin the La Nina the season which typically means the advancement of warmer water in the Atlantic a little earlier in the season, which mean a longer range of storms. Most storms at the beginning of the season develop closer to the shoreline because the lack of warm life giving and sustained water in points closer to the Africa. We will see these temps warm up quicker I believe this year. The temps will give us the longer season which means more storms in the basin. Which if their are more storms present the likelihood of landfall become more likely. So here is what I say:

13 named storms (Tropical Storms - Hurricane); 10 normal

(Tropical storms are sustained winds of 39 mph or higher)

7 of these storms will become Hurricanes; 6 normal

(Hurricanes are 74 MPH or higher)

3 Major Hurricanes

(Major Hurricanes have winds in excess of 111 MPH)

National Hurricane Website

Dr. Gray (the forecaster of forecasters on tropical weather)

Weather this last full week of April

I have to apologize to everyone for not having the opportunity to post last week. Last week was PSNK theater Production, "Go back for murder", which I helped design the lighting and was in charge of set construction so. Right now, I'm watching so severe weather forming over Texas. A Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) tornado watch is over Texas now. This is producing some tornadoes and will probably become a mini outbreak before all is said and done. But over our region we will see, Rain and more rain over the next few days.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, low 44.

Tomorrow: Cloudy, periods of showers, likely during the afternoon. High 61.

Tomorrow Night: Cloudy, showers and thunderstorms likely, low 47.


Thursday: Cloudy, showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly afternoon, high 68.

Thursday Night: Cloudy, Showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 53.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, a chance of showers and thunderstorms, high 65.


Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 46.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, a chance of showers. High 62.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, low 45.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, high 69.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, low 50.

Monday: Partly cloudy, high 73.

Late season snowfall

You might have to take a look at the calendar over the next few days as we will see this cold weather continue and the potential for some snowfall. The National weather service in Pittsbutgh is not hyping this system like Accu- Weather is. According to map attached below just to our east is to receive a major snowfall.


However we will see a mix of rain and snow, but we still could see 1 to 2 nches of snowfall by Monday morning. So yeah look at the calendar.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, low 31.

Saturday: Mostly Cloudy, a slight chance of snow showers early changing over to rain showers. high 47.

Saturday Night: Cloudy, periods of rain showers, mixing and changing over to snow overnight. Low 31.

Sunday: Cloudy, periods of snow showers early, mixing with rain during daylight hours then changing back over to snow showers. High 43.

Sunday Night: Cloudy, rain showers early changing over snow showers after 12 am . Low 31.

Monday: Cloudy, Snow showers early changing to rain showers. High 45. Monday Night: Cloudy, a chance of rain and snow showers low 32.

Weather today

We will see the cold air continue over the next few days. Gradually we will move into more spring like weather but not before we deal with some rain at the end of the week. As I will mention in later tomorrow's or Wednesday's forecasts a storm system setting up that might bring some severe weather to the region over the weekend. I will update you on this again either tomorrow night or Wednesday.

Tonight - Cloudy, Low 25.

Tomorrow - Partly Cloudy, High 48.

Tomorrow Night - Increasing cloudiness, Low 38.

Wednesday - Cloudy, a chance of snow showers and rain mixed then becoming all rain , High 50.

Wednesday Night - Overcast with Rain. Heavy at times. Low 42.

Thursday - Mostly Cloudy with showers early. High 52.

Thursday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low 33.

April brings .......

Today and tomorrow we will see two of the best days of this season so far, but tomorrow night we will see some thunderstorms move into the region in front of a large storm system this system will also allow cool Canadian air to rapid move into the region. And when ever you see a set up like this you know that their is the potential for some severe thunderstorms to occur. After these roll though the temps will drop and we will see some payback for those warmer than average temps in December. We are talking about snowfall in the forecast, I doubt any accumulation but still a dusting in April is not completely out of the question.

Cool air Blue Arrows, Warm air Hot Pink arrows

Tomorrow evening's surface map

Today: Sunny, High 68.

Tonight: Mostly clear, Low 39.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, High 75.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, showers and thunderstorms likely, Low 45.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, a chance of showers and thunderstorms, High 50.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, a chance of rain showers early, mixing with snow then becoming all snow showers towards dawn, Low 26.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, a chance of snow showers, High 37.

3/30 - April 1st

This week has really been a great first full week of spring. With temperatures a few degrees above normal but not extremely warm, it has been a opportunity for everyone to get out and do their outdoor activities.

Today: Sunny, High 68.

Tonight: Mostly clear, Low 34.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, a chance of showers. High 63.


Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Low 43.

Sunday: Cloudy, showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible during the late afternoon into early evening. High 64.

Sunday Night: Mostly Cloudy, a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, Low 49.

Tonight - 3/29

After a few days of rain and a few more predicted we will begin to feel like we live on the Northwestern US not the mid – Atlantic part. We even will be seeing problems again if you travel 28 south between Highland park bridge and the Rt 8 exit. (I live really close to southbound 28 and these three hillsides around here are soaked as it is everywhere, around here) Then later in the forecast we will see a change over to Partly cloudy skies with high temperatures in the mid 60.

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms early, then a chance of showers. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, Low 43.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, High 62.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, low 43. Monday: Partly cloudy, a slight chance of showers. High 68.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, a chance of showers, low 48.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, a chance of showers. High 67.

Tuesday Night: Partly Cloudy, a chance of showers, Low 44.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, High 64.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, Low 42.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, High 63.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, Low 47.

First day of spring

Today at 8:07 pm EDT we will official transform from the season of winter to the season of spring. This of course is astrological not meteorological because the weather people take winter from December 1 - March 1, the coldest period of the year. We will begin to see more warm temperatures at least over the next few days. A very nice day today we have on tap and this will continue over the next few days with a chance of showers start tomorrow. But I doubt it will be a wash out for the next few day.

The rest of the day: Mostly sunny, High 45.

Tonight: Mostly clear, Low 25.

Wednesday: Increasing clouds, a chance of showers , High 51.

Wednesday Night: Mostly Cloudy, a slight chance of showers. Low 43.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, a chance of showers , High 63.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, a chance of showers, Low 49.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, a chance of showers, High 64.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, a chance of showers. Low 44.

First few day back from spring break

After a nice end of spring break snowstorm we will see temperature in the beginning of the next week becoming more seasonal. This will only add to the runoff thus creating a situation that could help the rivers flood more especially if the high on Tuesday exceeds the forecasted high of 52.


Tonight: Mostly cloudy, a chance of snow showers, Low 19.

Sunday: Partly Cloudy, a chance of flurries. High 38.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, Low 22.

Monday: Mostly cloudy, a rain and snow mix likely becoming all showers, High 47.

Monday Night: Mostly Cloudy, a chance of showers, Low 32.

Tuesday: Partly Cloudy, High 47.

Tuesday Night: Clear, Low 27.

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny, High 52.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, Low 39.

Severe weather/Rain/Flooding into Friday Morning

Severe weather/Rain/Flooding into Friday Morning

Severe weather as shown in the mpa below are the 3 concerns that I have in Northeastern Ohio we have a nice big heavy rain band that will move across the northern regions. This is following what I titled as 3 in Northern PA a stronger line of thunderstorms that moved through the area and is heading eastward. Number 2 is stronger thunderstorms that move through southern westmoreland county earlier.

Heavy Rain showers will contutine tomorrow bring about 1 to 2 inches of rainfall to the region.

The potential for some flooding to occur over the next few days exists. From the NWS in Pittsburgh:

PERIODS OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BRING RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES BEFORE ENDING BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE RAINFALL MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING STREAMS AND CREEKS OUT OF THEIR BANKS.

If you want to check about the river close to you click here.

I will update mid day tomorrow after some more guidance develops on this weather event.

Blizzard of 1993

Blizzard of 1993

The superstorm of 1993 is believed by many in the meteorology profession and weathercasters around the nation as the storm of the century, the weather channel has said this the third in storms of the century behind the super tornado outbreak of 1974 and the labor day hurricane of 1935. This storm system began to develop a week ahead of time. The models at the beginning of the week of March 8th and ending with Saturday the 13th, were beginning to show a significant chance of a major winter storm developing over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. As the week progressed it became more and more clear how much snow we would indeed get out of this storm system.

As a third grader I loved to help everyone

This is where I began to get hooked on the weather. I loved watching just how these weathercasters were able to predict this storm system many days in advance with a great deal of accuracy, thus warn people of the pending storm system and the hazardous conditions that it would cause. Even with these forecasts produced the St. Patrick’s day parade in Downtown Pittsburgh marched on. This as literally, everything was getting struck from news trucks on there way to the parade route to Police cars on patrol. The city was in grid lock but the show of Pittsburgher’s St. Patrick’s Day spirit marched on.
Satellite image clearing showing the classic comma
formation for a very strong low pressure system

However the worst was only yet to come, the storm turned into a huge storm system early afternoon, the National Weather Service here in Pittsburgh issued Blizzard warnings which the NWS defines as, “Blizzard Warning - Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or greater, considerable falling and/or blowing snow reducing visibility frequently to 1/4 mile or less for a period of three hours or more. There are no temperature criteria in the definition of a blizzard but freezing temperatures and 35 mph winds will create single digit wind chills.” Link. The snow became heavier and I noticed that because as a 3rd grade having a huge hill in my backyard next to route 28 I was sledding and noticed not many vehicles come down 28. The next thing I remember which I will never forget is at 5 pm everything seemed to stand still nobody was any longer coming down 28 and every fire whistle was blowing where I lived. The state closed the Interstate’s and most of the state maintained highways. The Fire departments were calling in everybody because they wanted crews at the fire house if a fire happened instead of have the time added to get to the fire house. I will always remember coming in and asking my parents what is happening? And seeing on the news how many thins were closing and how much this city was paralyzed. I knew that this was bad, every county in the commonwealth was declared a disaster area. If this storm happened over a weekday I often wonder how much worst would it have been? Granted we did have a lot of lead time but would people follow it?

That is why I have chosen to be a weatherman to help educate and give people my knowledge of the weather in the means of an accurate forecast. People need to know what the weather will do the next day and this is why I am here, deciding to work as a broadcast weathercast eventually becoming a broadcast meteorologist with a degree from Miss. State in 2010.

Today is the day that I say that I got hooked on the subject of Meteorology. This is the anniversary of the Blizzard of 1993. Read my blog later on about the blizzard in Pittsburgh and the National Superstorm. However 14 years later we are seeing temperatures in the 70's around the region.

Tonight - Partly cloudy, an increasing chance of showers. Low 52.

Tomorrow - Mostly cloudy, showers likely, thunderstorms also possible during the afternoon. High 68.

Tomorrow Night - Cloudy, a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 48.

Thursday - Cloudy, showers likely, high 60.

Thursday Night - Mostly cloudy, a chance of showers, low 36.

Friday - Showers likely early, then Cloudy, high 47.

Friday Night - Mostly cloudy, a chance of rain showers, changing over to a chance of snow showers. Low 25.

Saturday - Mostly cloudy, a slight chance of snow showers. high 41.

Saturday Night - Partly cloudy, low 23.

Sunday - Partly cloudy, high 44.

Sunday Night - Partly cloudy, low 26.

Forecast thur Wednesday Night

Today: Partly cloudy maybe a passing sprinkle, high 57.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy, slight chance of showers, low 40.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, high 68.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, low 49.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy a chance of showers, high 68.

Wednesday Night: Periods of showers after midnight, Low 48.

First 3 (real) days of spring break

This is a really short forecast but it was easy to do because of the lack of “weather” that is occurring. This upcoming week in PA is severe weather week. Tomorrow’s topic is tornadoes which I will talk about a bit in my blog tomorrow in particular a series of Twisters that moved across Western PA back when I was two (May 31,1985).

Today: Sunny, high 50.

Tonight: Clear, low 28.

Monday: Mostly sunny, high 56.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, low 37.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, a slight chance of showers, high 64.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, a chance of showers, low 45.

It looks like after we get through today’s showers, we will have some great weather coming this week. Tonight however you will need to keep a watch out for icy spots, also dense fog might develop overnight. Also don’t forget tonight at 2 am we spring ahead to Daylight savings time which started back in 1941(as “war time”) to help with the war effort. More Information CLICK HERE

Tonight: A slight chance of showers early, Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, low 30.Watch out for icy spots

Sunday: Sunny, high 46.Sunday Night: Clear, low 26.

Monday: Mostly sunny, high 56.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, low 36.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers. High 60.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers low 45.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, high 56.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers low 37.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers, high 48.

Spring break forecast (partial)

This forecast if you like Sunny and mild temperatures is, perfect for you. The average high for this time of year is 46, so today we will be 6 degrees above normal. This is looking to be a great week for spring break; I hope everybody has nice spring break. I will be forecasting still next week and generating new graphics before the end of the week as templates so I can use them daily.

Today: Sunny, high 52.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, low 40.

Saturday: Showers likely, mostly cloudy, high 56.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers, early. Cloudy early then gradual clearing, low 34.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, high 48.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, low 30.

Monday: Mostly sunny, high 58.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, low 32.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy, high 56.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy, low 40.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, high 59.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy, low 40.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, high 63.

3/8-3/12

Today looks like the start of winter but we still will have to contend with the lower than normal temps., tomorrow however we will be reaching into the upper 40’s/lower 50’s then it will begin to feel like spring around the area.

Today: Mostly sunny, High 33.

Tonight: Clear, Low 15.

Friday: Mostly sunny, High 50.

Friday Night: Increasing clouds, Low 37.

Saturday: A chance of showers, Mostly cloudy, High 52.

Saturday Night: A slight chance of showers early, otherwise Partly cloudy, Low 34.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, High 55.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, Low 36.

Monday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, High 54.

If anyone in the class is going somewhere for Spring break and wants a forecast let me know!!

3/7 - 3/12

Now that the snow is ending over the region, we will changing pretty much from winter and begin looking toward spring. This will really feel like spring break to PSU student.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, low 14.

Thursday: Partly cloudy, high 34.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, low 17.

Friday: Mostly sunny, high 44.

Friday Night: A chance of showers, towards daybreak cloudy, low 33.

Saturday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, high 50.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, low 36.

Sunday: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, high 52.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers. Partly cloudy, low 36.

Monday: Partly cloudy, high 54.

Monday Night: A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, low 38.

This storm system seems that will blow through the region tomorrow into tomorrow night. Attached below is what accu-weather feels will happen this differs a bit from my forecast. I agree (I did the calculations also) with the NWS however is predicting 3-5" around Pittsburgh and 4-8" in the mountains. I feel that they are more correct this time around.

Today – Increasing cloudiness, High 21.

Tonight – Mostly cloudy becoming cloudy with Snow developing after Midnight. Low 17.

Tomorrow – Snow, heavy at times. High 30. Accumulating 3-5” in the Pittsburgh area, 4- 8” in the Laurels.

Tomorrow night – Snow tapering to flurries, decreasing cloudiness. Low 15.

Let it snow one last time this season!!! Enjoy it.

The weekend (and Spring Break) are shaping up nice I will have more on that later tonight or tomorrow!!

Three Day forecast

The main two words for this forecast will be COLD and SNOW Over the next two days, Monday and Tuesday we will see windchill values close to or below zero. And then overnight Tuesday into Wednesday we will see a chance of some accumulating snowfall over the region, when a clipper system passes our region.

Today – Cloudy, Snow showers likely, little accumulation. Windy. Winds west 20 – 25. High 30.

Tonight – Scattered snow showers, becoming partly cloudy. Windy. Winds Northwest 15 – 30. Low 10. Windchill values 5 to - 15.

Tomorrow - Partly Cloudy. Windy. Winds North 10 – 15. High 22, Windchill values 5 to - 10.

Tomorrow Night – Increasing cloudiness, snow developing after midnight. Low 18.

Wednesday – Snow Likely. Cloudy. High 30.

Wednesday Night – Snow tapering to flurries. Low 16. Total system accumation 2-4" around the area higher in the Mountains and to the North.

Below I have attached the most recent predicated accumulation forecast from Accu-weather.

Early week

First few days of March

First i want to say sorry I already broke my own rule now, I have been working on a Play for New Kensington Civic Theater, and we were moving it to Penn Ken and have been working on that the lighting so I must say a general sorry. But anyhow weather early next week around here should be fine along with most of the nation. We will probably see a chance of Precipitation Today into Monday but it will exit the region by late Monday Night.

Today - Cloudy, chance of scattered snow showers, windy. Winds west 15 - 20 gusts to 35. High 32.

Tonight - Cloudy, chance of a snow shower early, then becoming Partly cloudy. Windy. Winds west 10 -15 gusts to 30. Low 19

Monday - Partly Cloudy, chance of a snow shower early, then a chance of a rain shower, High 37.

Monday Night - Partly Cloudy, chance of snow shower early. Low 17

Tuesday - Partly Cloudy, High 30.

Tuesday Night - Partly Cloudy, Low 19.

Local Weather Update 4 pm

4 pm and no rain yet, it will be coming I swear. The heaviest period of showers and rain will be later the afternoon and this evening when I think we will see a possible thunderstorm which will contain very heavy rainfall and some strong winds. The tempertures are in the 40 north of the city and in the 50's south of the city, which means a large amount of the snowfall that we had two weeks ago is melting quickly. This means that the flooding potential is increased. Now with the rainfall that we will see tonight over .5 to 1"+ of rainfall fall with the 1-2" of liquid from the snowfall we are in for some flooding. Especailly on the Ohio at Pittsburgh. The normal places will see the flooding.

From the NWS here in Pittsburgh's Flooding Advisory,
SNOWMELT IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE ALLEGHENY AND MONONGAHELA RIVERBASINS WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT RAIN TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISESON LOCAL RIVERS. WATER MAY REACH THE MONONGAHELA PARKING WHARF AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING.

I will update later as this develops.

National Outlook

It's 3 pm where in the middle of the afternoon just the right time for severe weather to begin to fire up. And a few have just started to fire up, I just looked one the weather channel and heard that a severe tornadoes blew through a school in Enterprise, Alabama. The SPC called this storm many hours ago (8:30 am est) Below is the Watch box for the area produced earlier in the day.

Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0044.html

This is following Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) was issued md 238 at 11:48 which stated this supercell (storm system which can produces tornadoes) is very powerful and strong to severe tornadoes could be could go from Alabama to Georgia.

Lets take a look at how big the storm system is, attached is the Enhanced Infrared satellite image. The area we are talking about is should clearly with the coldest clouds tops the red over Alabama. This system stretches from Neb to the east coast from New York to Florida.

This situation will only continue today into tonight, the most active time for tornado development is during the late afternoon into the evening. I wouldn't be surprised if this tornado outbreak becomes even larger into the evening. The atmosphere down south is very unstable and the ingredients are right for severe weather development very quickly.

Below is the outlook for today from the SPC:

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007 ...

A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES. THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS ALSO FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TORNADOES...SOME WHICH MAY BE STRONG AND LONG TRACKED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THIS AREA IS IN A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE ALABAMA CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA EASTERN MISSISSIPPI SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES.

A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH VERY STRONG JET LEVEL WINDS. AT THE SAME TIME...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE RAPIDLY TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SEVERE STORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS ALABAMA INTO GEORGIA. THESE STORMS WILL BE IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT STORMS TO ROTATE AND SPAWN LONG TRACKED...DAMAGING TORNADOES. STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE....WHILE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. ..WEISS/HALES.. 03/01/2007

Marching in like a LION!!

Well this is the first 3 hours of march and it marching in like a lion who has eaten in a few day and is anger. This storm system is anticipated to have a major Severe weather outbreak tomorrow. The Storms Predication center doesn't issue this type of map without a very strong feeling that something big will happen over the next 24 hours.

A very high potential for severe weather exist within the Purple circle, a moderate in the red and slight chance in the green. Now don't be fooled with this map pretty much anywhere inside of the brown area could easily see some severe weather. I think around here we stand a good chance for a strong thunderstorm tonight.

If we get a Strong thunderstorm tonight we could be looking at more rainfall which is not good for the streams and rivers. The major concern is flooding and because of the amount of ice on the rivers we could see ice jam flooding where the ice breaks apart but literally jams(dams) up in a location and then after building enough water behind the jam it breaks allowing the water to rush downstream. The last noticeable case of this that occurred in the Pittsburgh area in 1996 when after the ice on the Oil City creek decided to jam and held for a significant period of time, holding back massive amounts of water. Then almost around the 6 pm news it let loose. Which meant flooding downriver in a few hours. This could happen again the different between that snow melt/rain event is that that one had temps that reached into the 60's and very dense fog developed over the Laurels which is a snow killer (eats snow rapidly), today we are only predicted to reach into the mid 50's.

As the weather develops I will update.

2/28 - 3/4

Before we read the five day forecast, a bit of history on today. Two years ago back in 2005 we had a nice size snowstorm fire up over the mid Atlantic. This storm system produced over 7 inches of snowfall in the Pittsburgh area (Pittsburgh International received 7, downtown however got a little less)but the four PSU campuses in Pittsburgh only two hour delayed. Yeah so it was tough traveling conditions to campus that day. But now the five day:

Today – Partly cloudy, High 41.

Tonight – Increasing Cloudiness, chance of showers toward daybreak, Low 32.

Tomorrow – Rain, heavy at times, cloudy, High 52.

Tomorrow Night – Rain and Showers around, cloudy, Low 38.

Friday – Cloudy a chance of rain, High 45.

Friday Night – Cloudy, a chance of a shower, Low 28.

Saturday – Cloudy, a chance of a shower or flurries, High 37.

Saturday Night – Cloudy, a chance of flurries, Low 22.

Sunday – Cloudy, a chance of flurries, High 32.

Sunday Night – Cloudy, a chance of flurries, Low 22.

Note: A chance of Flooding is beginning to show up on a few model sites for tomorrow night into Friday because of the rapid snow melting and the amount of rain we are expected to receive tomorrow into Friday. I will probably post a little bit later as more is understood about this situation.

forecast 2/27 - 3/2

The next two days around our region looks good. After that a nice size rain system will move in. There might be a little bit of flooding around depending on how much snowfall is left on the ground north and in the mountains to the south.

Today - Cloudy with a chance of a shower or snow shower, High 38.

Tonight - Mostly Cloudy, Low 25.

Tomorrow - Partly cloudy, High 41.

Tomorrow Night - Becoming mostly cloudy, increasing chances of rain and snow showers after midnight, Low 33.

Thursday - Rain, heavy at times, Cloudy, High 52.

Thursday Night - Showers likely, Cloudy, Low 46.

Friday - Cloudy with a chance of showers, High 46.

Friday Night - Cloudy, a chance of snow showers or rain showers, Low 24.

Saturday - Cloudy, High 34.

Saturday Night - Cloudy, a chance of snow showers, Low 21.

Five day 2/26 - 3/2

Ok everybody so the storm that all the meteorologist and weather people around Pittsburgh and for that matter around the nation thought was going to blow up around the Pittsburgh area did not. Very lucky for us here in da burg. Not so lucky were the people down to the south. In the little town of Dumas, Arkansas

Source: http://www.city-data.com/

people are lucky to be alive. An estimated F-2 tornado packing winds between 158 - 207 mph with a half of a mile wide path of destruction, only 27 people were injured and no one lost their life. In total 18 confirmed tornadoes touchdowns on Saturday.

For the full storm report click here.

But anyhow here is how we are looking here in the Pittsburgh area for the next few days.

Today - Cloudy, with a chance of a snow flurries or rain shower. High 38.

Tonight - Cloudy, with a chance of flurries. Low 27.

Tuesday - Cloudy, with a chance of snow shower or rain shower. High 37.

Tuesday Night - Decreasing cloudiness, flurries likely North and East of the City. Low 24.

Wednesday - Partly Sunny. North of I-80 a chance of flurries and Showers. High 40.

Wednesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low 27.

Thursday - Increasing cloudiness, a chance of showers. High 52

Thursday Night - Rain developing, could be heavy at times, Cloudy. Low 37.

Friday- Showers likely. High 45.

Friday Night - Rain and snow mix. Low 31.

Sunday's Dangerous weather

Overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning the Pittsburgh area will see a mix of Freezing rain, Sleet and snow. The Storm system is very powerful and will be producing a significant amount of frozen precipitation by tomorrow afternoon. Unlike the storm that we had two weeks ago this one will mostly be an ice event. Most places south of the city of Pittsburgh will see a change over from freezing rain to all rain then during the evening hours change back to a mix. North and east of the city, will see many hours of ice accumulation, this area will most likely not see a change over to all rain if it does it will be short lived.

So what is happening right now?
Over the Midwest a blizzard is occurring and down to the south severe weather that is producing tornadoes. The storms prediction center, (the national weather agency that is in charge of issuing the severe weather warnings and watches) has issued one of the most important advisory that they can issue. A PDS, which is a Particularly Dangerous Situation watch box. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0030.html



Now this means that severe weather is very likely and could pop up anywhere in that watch box because the atmosphere is so unstable.

The other area that is being affected by severe weather is the Midwest where numerous blizzard warning are in effect. A blizzard is defined by the national weather service as a storm with 20 degrees or lower temps. Sustained winds over 35mph, gust higher then that, and four inches of snow or higher over 12 hours forecasted.

Source: Weather.com
The whole area of severe weather will move to the east tomorrow and the storm will intensity rapidly overnight tonight.

The National weather service here in Pittsburgh has already issued a winter storm watch for the storm and will update it from time to time thought the day and into tomorrow. Travel around the area will be dangerous late tonight into tomorrow.

overnight and forecast

Overnight the sleet and freezing rain which overtook the region late yesterday afternoon after the first change from snow to sleet and freezing rain has changed back to snow. This snow will generally be light but we could pick up an addition 1 or 2 into this evening if we see a heavier band. The main story for the next few hours and days will be the extreme cold. Behind the low cold Canadien air will rush into the regions, this mixed with the winds gusts in excess of 40 mph will providing us with windchills well below zero.

Today - Snow showers, maybe another 1". Windy. Winds North 10 - 20 . High 20.

Tonight -Snow showers tapering to flurries. Winds Northwest 15 -20 gusting to 30.
Windchill vaules - 10 to -25

Tomorrow - Mostly Cloudy, windy. Winds west 10 -15 gusting to 25. High 15.
Windchill vaules - 5 to -15

Tomorrow Night - Mostly cloudy, windy. Winds west 10 - 15 gusting to 25. Low 8.
Windchill vaules - 10 to -20

Currently 7 pm

So a little under two weeks ago a little groundhog popped out and saw did not see his shadow. So we were supposed to have an “early spring”. Unfortunately Phil got this one wrong at least at the moment. Winter is in full force this evening across the Northeastern United State. Here in the Pittsburgh area we saw earlier a change over from snow to sleet and now to freezing rain and then will be going back to sleet then snow. The snowfall here in Allegheny County is up to about 7”. When I walked outside we have about a quarter of inch of ice on top of the snow. This could cause some really big havoc and it seems to be affecting the public transit system
here in the southern half of Allegheny County. The mayor of Pittsburgh has even asked people to stay home if possible. The city council is delayed at least an hour on Wednesday morning.

The freezing rain is primary over Allegheny County and south. Significant ice is occurring which could, very well mean, that a people around the regions could lose power because of the ice weight on the lines and trees that could fall on them.

Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0163.html

To the north of Allegheny County heavy snowfall will happen and is already occurring.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0161.html

Now I have heard no discussion of this snowfall spreading southward into the Pittsburgh area as the transition from mix back to snow occurs. That could make everything very interesting.

The second half of the system will be coming over the next few hours; this second half will be when numerous things happen.

First the transition of the mixed precipitation changes back to snow, heavy at time.

Second when the Low off the eastern seaboard takes over and we begin to see wrap around precipitation. I the 1 am forecast surface map, pay attention to that low over South Carolina.

We see that on the next forecasted surface map at 1 pm the low off the coast takes the primary role.

After that the winds will become a very critical player even before this transition takes place. The winds will gusting above 40 mph overnight and into Wednesday. The temperature will also drop behind the system. When we could feel windchills below zero as early as mid day Wednesday. We could still see an addition 4 - 6 inches of snowfall before tomorrow evening.

1 pm update

Here in Pittsburgh as I watched the noon news on line from wtae and on the tv kdka I noticed that they both had 2 weatherpersons this afternoon. This is interesting by they used both of them on air. So we know that thing is big. I have just measured the snow outside I have three inches here in O’Hara Township. We are looking for more snow thought the day. The Pittsburgh International airport is running on time still that will probably chance later with the change over to sleet and possibly freezing rain. That cannot be said for our neighbors to the east. Philly is having a 350 minute delay which is almost 6 hours!!


From the weather channel:

This will just get worst at the airports. Around the Pittsburgh area we will again see that change over to sleet by 5 pm. This is the absoule worst time that it could happen. Rush hour will be in full swing and this is horrible news for anyone around the region. If there is over 1/2" of sleetfall then a sleet warning will be posted this is very rare but could happen today into tonight.

So what is sleet?

Sleet is snow that partial has melted in the mid levels of the atmophere. The graphic clearly shows that the snow melts in that shallow warm layer.

From: http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gl)/guides/mtr/cld/prcp/zr/sleet.rxml

Again the snow heavy at times will change over to snow then will change back later.

4 Am update

Yeah the time is right it's four am and I'm still up which can only mean one thing, A major storm is near the area. The storm that has been talked about for the past few days is reaching the Pittsburgh area. The National weather service has updated the winter storm warning to include more information and advice to the public.

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH. THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS TO THE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF SLEET IS LIKELY ON TUESDAY EVENING...WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FROM PITTSBURGH ON SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE IF A LARGE AMOUNT OF ICE ACCUMULATES ON POWER LINES.

TRAVEL ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS DISCOURAGED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON THIS INCOMING WINTER STORM.

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh doesn't often use this harsh of language. But I agree with them that it is critical that driving is discouraged.

Currently:

The radar is showing that Snow has began to push into the region. Note:In the south you will notice a strong line of severe storms are sparking some fears of tornadic activity in the great New Orleans area.

The current surface map is showing the Low pressure system responsible for all this activity is still centered over Arkansas.


By 1 pm tomorrow the low moves towards the Northeast and heavy snow continues.

By the evening rush hour we will be looking at Snow, Sleet, and Freezing Rain, I think we will only see this for a few hours eventually changing back over to heavy snow. The primary factor are the temperatures both at the surface and the mid levels of the atmosphere as to how much snow does melt and change in the mid levels to sleet and freezing rain. (Rain will come down but back the surface is just so cold it freezing very quickly) Depending on the Freezing rain and sleet combined with the winds on Wednesday morning we could be looking at quite a few power outages. I will try to update before 1 pm.

Weather update 3 pm

Dennis' 3 pm update

The National weather service has posted some new information on this storm system in the form of a Winter Storm Warning:
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM ESTWEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM ESTWEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A WINTER STORM IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WILLSPREAD SNOW INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ONTUESDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW TO START AROUND THE MORGANTOWN AND ZANESVILLE AREASAROUND BETWEEN 300 AND 500 AM...THEN IN THE PITTSBURGH...WHEELINGAND NEW PHILADELPHIA AREAS BETWEEN 500 AM AND 700 AM AND SPREADNORTHWARD TO PLACES LIKE GROVE CITY...AND PUNXSUTAWNEY BEFORE900 AM TUESDAY MORNING. IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTEDTO REMAIN ALL SNOW WHERE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATEBY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD INCLUDE PLACES LIKE DUBOIS...OILCITY AND CLARION. IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...IN PLACES LIKEMORGANTOWN AND ZANESVILLE...THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SLEETAND FREEZING RAIN DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 2 TO 4 INCHES COULDACCUMULATE BEFORE CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. APROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAYNIGHT. MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SLEET OR ONE QUARTER INCH OFICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CHESTNUT AND LAUREL RIDGES OFWESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA...4 TO 8 INCHESOF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZINGRAIN DURING TUESDAY EVENING. IN GARRETT COUNTY MARYLAND AND TUCKER AND PRESTON COUNTIES OFWEST VIRGINIA... 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BEFOREMIXING WITH SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN DURING LATE TUESDAYAFTERNOON. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ISEXPECTED. MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SLEET OR ONE QUARTER INCH OFICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IN AREAS LIKE WHEELING...PITTSBURGH AND GREENSBURG...3 TO 5INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET BYTUESDAY EVENING. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET COULD OCCUR BEFOREMIXING WITH FREEZING RAIN. MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SLEET OR ONEQUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IN AREAS LIKE NEW CASTLE...BUTLER...KITTANNING AND INDIANA...4 TO8 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET ANDFREEZING RAIN TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAYEVENING. THEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNINGCOLDER AIR AND A PERIOD OF SNOW WILL RETURN WITH ADDITIONALACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OR MORE IN MANY AREAS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONALACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN ALL AREAS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINLY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM AND THEAMOUNT OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE IN MOST AREAS. ANY MIXTURE OFSLEET, FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN WILL DRAMATICALLY REDUCE TOTALACCUMULATIONS. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERYHAZARDOUS. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE IF A LARGE AMOUNT OF ICEACCUMULATES ON POWER LINES.

This discussion of the winter storm is pretty much stating what we have know for the past few days and that is a great deal less than we would like to know. The uncertainty of the track is a huge player in this weather storm. Where the temperature in the mid layer of the atmosphere is above freezing and where it is below. A few of the weather models, (computer generated maps that process numerical information and data to create the scenarios in which we have to forecast) are predicting a small time when at the mid levels of the atmosphere it will go above freezing. There are a lot of factors in play, the temperature of the mid levels of the atmosphere and low levels (surface) are primary factors in how much of the precipitation will be snow, sleet or freezing rain. The time of this will also be interesting because it will start snow (heavy at times) during the early morning/overnight hours tonight. And this will continue into the day tomorrow, then it might chance over to sleet and freezing rain. I think that this will be a very short lived period of above freezing temperature that high up. Also I think because we will be pushing 5 – 6 pm before the change over occurs the night time cooling will help factor in. Thus changing it back to snow quickly. Again I believe that we are in for up to a foot of snow in some parts of southwestern PA.



Some locations might even go above a foot of snow before all is said and done with. Accu-weather graphic does the system justice as it blows off the eastern coast and we get some addition precipitation out of the storm system.


Source: Accuweather.com



Tonight –Snow showers, otherwise mostly cloudy. Low 19

Tomorrow – Snow developing before dawn, Heavy at times, mixing with sleet and freezing rain during the late afternoon. High 23.

Tomorrow Night – Sleet, Freezing changing back to snow, heavy at times. Low 18.

Wednesday – Snow, tapering to snow showers during the afternoon. High 21.

Wednesday Night – Snow showers, otherwise mostly cloudy turning colder, Low 6!! We might again see windchill vaules below zero!!

Let it SNOW!!!

11 am update

As promised here is the before noon update:

We will be seeing a few snow showers around this evening this is ahead of the bulk of the precipitation that is down in the central plains.

A high is still in control of the region and will moving off the eastern coast within the next few hours. The low that we are concerned with is over Western OK and far Northern portion of the state of Texas.

As the low begins to strengthen today there is a threat of severe weather for the LA, Eastern OK and Texas. Check the National Predication center for updates.

As the low begins to move up across the southern United State and begin to pull a little north the precipitation in the Pittsburgh will begin. This should begin towards daybreak tomorrow morning. I think we will see around the Pittsburgh, 2-4 before lunch time tomorrow. Their is quite a bit of uncertain however with this system because if the track moves one way or the other it could be very heavy snow for Pittsburgh or heavy snow changing over to Snow, Sleet and Freezing rain then changing but over to snow. This is what I believe will happen south of the Pittsburgh area.

I think this map to your left is a little misleading. The heaviest snow I believe will shift eastward from where Accu-weather has put it. The wintry mix will happen but south of the city we might get an hour or mix and then change right back into snow.

I think that Downtown will see Pittsburgh the 6 -8", South of Downtown 4-8" and North and East of the city 8 -12". The laurels will probably receive a foot out of this storm. These have a chance to go either down or up in accumulation depending on the track of the Low. I will update before 3 pm.

The fronts maps: http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/LoadPage.aspx

The last map: http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=1

Total Snowfall projections

By now everyone knows that a nice side winter storm is moving our way. This storm will become very powerful. Somewhere within a few miles of the Pittsburgh are will see over a foot of snowfall. I think in downtown Pittsburgh - 6-8", South of Pittsburgh 4-8" and North and East of the city 8 -12". Some of the storm might produce some sleet and freezing rain especially points south of the city. This will be on Tuesday Late afternoon early evening. All these numbers are based on models produced at 7 pm (0 Z) time so I will be doing a full report of this weather event by noon. And doing more throughout the day. Maybe just maybe PSU BR, MK, and NK will get an off day. I'm doubtful unless we get up towards a foot.

Winter weather watch out of the Pittsburgh NWS

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH SAYS A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY CAUSE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN 6 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...PARTICULARLY FROM ZANESVILLE OHIO AND PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA NORTHWARD TO INTERSTATE 80. AREAS SOUTH OF ZANESVILLEAND PITTSBURGH CAN ALSO GET A COATING OF ICE ON TOP OF THE SNOW...ASWARMER AIR ALOFT GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY.ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STORM TRACK ANDHENCE DETAILS ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND ICE FOR INDIVIDUALLOCATIONS...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS CONFIDENT THAT THISWINTER STORM SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOW AT TIMES AND PAVEMENTS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...EVEN ICY. SO PLAN YOUR TRAVELS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACCORDINGLY...AND CHECK FOR UPDATES ON THIS WINTER STORM SITUATION.

Accuweather forecasted snowfall totals:

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=0

Winter has come with a mean look in its face. Over the past few days here in Pittsburgh we have seen below normal temperatures (the normal high for this time of year is in the mid 30’s) the high on Monday 9 the low on Monday morning was -4 and the windchills were well below zero all day. So we know that the temperatures are finally getting to feel somewhat like normal, (factor in that most of the winter we have been above normal and the last few days we have been below). Now precipitation is a little below normal, and we might get a bit of snow next week. I have been trying to watch this storm since Tuesday night between Mr. Psu rehearsals. But this will not be like the snowstorm over Upstate New York. They have seen over 100 inches of snow and still except more. This is where these two storms the one that can develop over the weekend and bring the mid-Atlantic a significant snowstorm or a very light snowfall and the one in upstate New York. This all is depended on the location of a high pressure system (H).

Accuweather map 1

If the high is that far north on the accu-weather map then the snow will move into the Pittsburgh area.

Accuweather map 2

You can see how the low (L) moves through the southern half of VA on early Tuesday morning were I except it to max out and thus produce a snow event over the Pittsburgh area. I will be updating a few more time over the weekend as all weather people including my weather self gets a better handle on this!!

LET IT SNOW!!


Maps:
http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=0

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/index.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

Weather Forecast 2/5 - 2/9 Brr cold!!!

So we are in the midst of a very cold arctic blast. Now usually the low for today is 20 this morning at 7:47 we reached the low of -4. That is 24 below where we should be and 28 degrees cold than last year's low of 24. But this is not as bad as it could have been back in 1918 they had a cold spell today that produced a morning low of -11. This morning and even for tomorrow morning many school's have cancelled classes.

In Pittsburgh we are now that bad off because in some towns in Upstate New York they received colder temperatures and snow up to 18" worth. Now image clearing that in this cold weather!! But let's take a look at the forecast.

Tonight - Clear skies. Windy. Low -3 Windchill values - 10 to -20

Tomorrow - Increasing cloudiness, chance of an afternoon snow shower. Winds decreasing. High 15. Windchill values -15 to -20

Tomorrow Night - Mostly Cloudy, increasing chances of snow, heavy at times. Low 10.

Wednesday - Mostly Cloudy, Snow showers. High 19

Wednesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low 8

Thursday - Partly Cloudy. High 22.

Thursday Night - Mostly Clear. Low 7.

Friday - Mostly Sunny. High 23.

Friday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low 11.

Happy National Weatherperson's DAY!!

Groundhog Day forecast/ Weatherman Lane's forecast

So Phil did not see his shadow this morning (early spring). Nor didn't any of the other groundhog in North American as of 10 am this according to groundhog central.
Well they must not have been checking the prevailing weather forecast for the next few days. We are going to see a deep cold snap over the next few days with temperatures as highs only in the single digits. It's going to be downright cold over much of the nation over the next few days. I except Monday and tuesday mornings many school districts will be two hour delaying or even cancelling because of the cold polar airmass with the below zero windchills. This is the coldest air we have felt since mid January 1994!! Ok, so here is what the Pittsburgh area we will see:

Today: Snow Showers could be heavy at times. 1 - 3 inches of accumulation. Winds West 5 -10 mph. High 32.

Tonight: Scattered snow showers, otherwise cloudy. Low 12.

Tomorrow: Cloudy with Snow showers developing, accumulation 1 -2". Winds West 10 -15 mph, windchill values 5 above to 5 below. High 20.

Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with flurries. Winds West increasing to 15 - 20 mph, windchill values zero to 10 below (0 to - 10). Low 7.

Sunday: Snow showers, winds west 15 - 20. Windchill 2 above to 8 below (2 to -8). High 12.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, a chance of a flurry, LOW 0!! Windchill values (0 to -20).

Monday: Mostly cloudy, a chance of a flurry. Windy. High 8. Windchill values (5 to - 15)

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy snow showers. Windy. Low 2. Windchill values (0 to - 20)

Tuesday: Snow showers, not as windy High 11. Windchill values 5 above to 10 below (5 to -10)

Tuesday Night: Snow showers turning to flurries, Low 3. Windchill values 0 to 15 below (0 to -15)

Groundhog Day '07 preview

Groundhog Day '07 preview

In just a few hours a little animal will pop out of his hole to the northeast of Pittsburgh, the animal will have tons of media coverage on what he has to say. Because this is not any old animal nope this is the greatest weatherman that ever was, Punxsutawney Phil!!

Groundhog day is the day when the weather forecasting has gone to the wild, well almost. Groundhog day has many traditions and even can trace it’s origins back into the church. February 2nd is the day on the church year called candlemas, this is a day when the priest would bless the candles to be used during the church year. He would give a candle to every family to light their homes for the rest of the winter because today the second of February is the half way point between the Winter Solstice and the Spring Equinox. A European tradition stated that, “If the sun came out February 2, halfway between winter and spring, it meant six more weeks of wintry weather.”

The tradition began in 1886 in the town of Punxsutawney. The name given to the groundhog was “Punxsutawney Phil” who is the Prognosticator of Prognosticators, and Weather Prophet Extraordinary.’’ The people who continue the tradition today is a group called the inner circle of the Punxsutawney groundhog club. Only one can speak the language of the groundhog (Groundhogese), this is the current president of the inner circle who tells the world Phil’s forecast.

At this year’s event a new meteorologist hall of fame will be dedicated. This hall of fame is meant to spotlight meteorologist who “the important role these individuals have on our daily lives.” A new meteorologist will be added every year to add to the tradition of groundhog day.

Last year he appeared with a terrible towel because the great Prognosticator called for two things last year six more weeks of winter and Steelers Superbowl victory three nights latter, both of which came true!!

Phil’s Records
shadow (six more weeks of winter) - 96
No shadow – 14
No records - 9

Happy Groundhog Day!!!

Picture Source: http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=6

36 hour Weather Forecast

Tonight - Scattered snw showers around the region. Low 14.

Tomorrow - A chance of flurries. High 24.

Tomorrow Night - Partly Cloudy, a passing flurry. Low 17.

Weather Forecast 1/29 - 1/30

This week looks to be quite the same as the last week. The threat of snow is in the forecast everyday this week. We woke up this morning to windchill down below zero. (see windchill in this blog) .

Today- Mostly Cloudy with a chance of scattered snow showers. High 23.

Tonight - Mostly Cloudy with a chance of snow showers, more likely after midnight. Low 16.

Tomorrow - Mostly Cloudy with Snow showers likely. High 27.

What is Windchill?

What is windchill?

Windchill is commonly defined as what the air feels like on your skin. This equation takes the temperature with the effects of the wind calculated in, which gives you a nice number of what it feels like to your body.

The windchill in some cases will cause serious injury and could even kill you. The on set of frostbite can be very quick on any unprotected skin. Ie: If the temperature is 5 degrees above and the winds are 30 mph frostbite can begin in 30 minutes again on any unprotected skin.

The national weather service the government agency charged with the task of weather forecasting along with taking records of the weather. They developed a "new version" of the windchill index