severe weather today 6/8/07

Ok, so here is an update to the forecast….. we are under a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 9pm tonight. The National storm prediction center has issued a Public outlook on these storms which they do with larger and more dangerous systems.

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1139 AM CDT FRI JUN 08 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY THRU EARLY TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY THRU EARLY TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

SOUTHEAST INDIANA

NORTHERN KENTUCKY
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE

MUCH OF OHIO

WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA

NORTHWEST WEST VIRGINIA

SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS WARM AND MOIST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ENHANCE STRONG LIFTING WITH THE FRONT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY MOVE EWD THRU MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR THAT A FEW ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP AND PRODUCE TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO INTO NWRN PA.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..MCCARTHY.. 06/08/2007

So what this generally is saying is that Large hail and Damaging winds will be our two problems in the Pittsburgh area. To the north however …

ADDITION...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR THAT A FEW ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP AND PRODUCE TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OHIO INTO NWRN PA.

This means that some tornadoes are possible up north from Pittsburgh….

Attached below are maps that show some of this system forecast producers in forecast likelihood.

This shows the likelihood of hail in the Pittsburgh Area. You might think 30% isn't a big deal unless you know that 30% is actually a large number in this field. This means that some of us with most likely see some hail fall.

Around the Pittsburgh area the threat of Tornadoes is low but not completely to be ruled out. We will have to watch this...

The major threat from this system over and around the Pittsburgh area is wind damage. This damage could be significant if the right ingredients get going.

This is the current radar map from the region clearly showing a line of severe weather beginning to fire over the middle sections of Ohio. This is what we will have to watch over the next few hours. My advice is stay tuned to the local media (KDKA, WTAE, WPXI or on line sources such as the National weather service Pittsburgh) stay tune and prepare for some severe weather.