Weather update 3 pm

Dennis' 3 pm update

The National weather service has posted some new information on this storm system in the form of a Winter Storm Warning:
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM ESTWEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM ESTWEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A WINTER STORM IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WILLSPREAD SNOW INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ONTUESDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW TO START AROUND THE MORGANTOWN AND ZANESVILLE AREASAROUND BETWEEN 300 AND 500 AM...THEN IN THE PITTSBURGH...WHEELINGAND NEW PHILADELPHIA AREAS BETWEEN 500 AM AND 700 AM AND SPREADNORTHWARD TO PLACES LIKE GROVE CITY...AND PUNXSUTAWNEY BEFORE900 AM TUESDAY MORNING. IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTEDTO REMAIN ALL SNOW WHERE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATEBY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD INCLUDE PLACES LIKE DUBOIS...OILCITY AND CLARION. IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...IN PLACES LIKEMORGANTOWN AND ZANESVILLE...THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SLEETAND FREEZING RAIN DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 2 TO 4 INCHES COULDACCUMULATE BEFORE CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. APROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAYNIGHT. MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SLEET OR ONE QUARTER INCH OFICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CHESTNUT AND LAUREL RIDGES OFWESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA...4 TO 8 INCHESOF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZINGRAIN DURING TUESDAY EVENING. IN GARRETT COUNTY MARYLAND AND TUCKER AND PRESTON COUNTIES OFWEST VIRGINIA... 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BEFOREMIXING WITH SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN DURING LATE TUESDAYAFTERNOON. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ISEXPECTED. MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SLEET OR ONE QUARTER INCH OFICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IN AREAS LIKE WHEELING...PITTSBURGH AND GREENSBURG...3 TO 5INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET BYTUESDAY EVENING. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET COULD OCCUR BEFOREMIXING WITH FREEZING RAIN. MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SLEET OR ONEQUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IN AREAS LIKE NEW CASTLE...BUTLER...KITTANNING AND INDIANA...4 TO8 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET ANDFREEZING RAIN TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAYEVENING. THEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNINGCOLDER AIR AND A PERIOD OF SNOW WILL RETURN WITH ADDITIONALACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OR MORE IN MANY AREAS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONALACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN ALL AREAS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINLY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM AND THEAMOUNT OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE IN MOST AREAS. ANY MIXTURE OFSLEET, FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN WILL DRAMATICALLY REDUCE TOTALACCUMULATIONS. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERYHAZARDOUS. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE IF A LARGE AMOUNT OF ICEACCUMULATES ON POWER LINES.

This discussion of the winter storm is pretty much stating what we have know for the past few days and that is a great deal less than we would like to know. The uncertainty of the track is a huge player in this weather storm. Where the temperature in the mid layer of the atmosphere is above freezing and where it is below. A few of the weather models, (computer generated maps that process numerical information and data to create the scenarios in which we have to forecast) are predicting a small time when at the mid levels of the atmosphere it will go above freezing. There are a lot of factors in play, the temperature of the mid levels of the atmosphere and low levels (surface) are primary factors in how much of the precipitation will be snow, sleet or freezing rain. The time of this will also be interesting because it will start snow (heavy at times) during the early morning/overnight hours tonight. And this will continue into the day tomorrow, then it might chance over to sleet and freezing rain. I think that this will be a very short lived period of above freezing temperature that high up. Also I think because we will be pushing 5 – 6 pm before the change over occurs the night time cooling will help factor in. Thus changing it back to snow quickly. Again I believe that we are in for up to a foot of snow in some parts of southwestern PA.



Some locations might even go above a foot of snow before all is said and done with. Accu-weather graphic does the system justice as it blows off the eastern coast and we get some addition precipitation out of the storm system.


Source: Accuweather.com



Tonight –Snow showers, otherwise mostly cloudy. Low 19

Tomorrow – Snow developing before dawn, Heavy at times, mixing with sleet and freezing rain during the late afternoon. High 23.

Tomorrow Night – Sleet, Freezing changing back to snow, heavy at times. Low 18.

Wednesday – Snow, tapering to snow showers during the afternoon. High 21.

Wednesday Night – Snow showers, otherwise mostly cloudy turning colder, Low 6!! We might again see windchill vaules below zero!!

Let it SNOW!!!