4 pm and no rain yet, it will be coming I swear. The heaviest period of showers and rain will be later the afternoon and this evening when I think we will see a possible thunderstorm which will contain very heavy rainfall and some strong winds. The tempertures are in the 40 north of the city and in the 50's south of the city, which means a large amount of the snowfall that we had two weeks ago is melting quickly. This means that the flooding potential is increased. Now with the rainfall that we will see tonight over .5 to 1"+ of rainfall fall with the 1-2" of liquid from the snowfall we are in for some flooding. Especailly on the Ohio at Pittsburgh. The normal places will see the flooding.
From the NWS here in Pittsburgh's Flooding Advisory,
SNOWMELT IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE ALLEGHENY AND MONONGAHELA RIVERBASINS WILL COMBINE WITH OVERNIGHT RAIN TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RISESON LOCAL RIVERS. WATER MAY REACH THE MONONGAHELA PARKING WHARF AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING.
I will update later as this develops.
Thursday, March 1, 2007
National Outlook
It's 3 pm where in the middle of the afternoon just the right time for severe weather to begin to fire up. And a few have just started to fire up, I just looked one the weather channel and heard that a severe tornadoes blew through a school in Enterprise, Alabama. The SPC called this storm many hours ago (8:30 am est) Below is the Watch box for the area produced earlier in the day.
Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0044.html
Lets take a look at how big the storm system is, attached is the Enhanced Infrared satellite image. The area we are talking about is should clearly with the coldest clouds tops the red over Alabama. This system stretches from Neb to the east coast from New York to Florida.
Source: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0044.htmlThis is following Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) was issued md 238 at 11:48 which stated this supercell (storm system which can produces tornadoes) is very powerful and strong to severe tornadoes could be could go from Alabama to Georgia.
Lets take a look at how big the storm system is, attached is the Enhanced Infrared satellite image. The area we are talking about is should clearly with the coldest clouds tops the red over Alabama. This system stretches from Neb to the east coast from New York to Florida.
This situation will only continue today into tonight, the most active time for tornado development is during the late afternoon into the evening. I wouldn't be surprised if this tornado outbreak becomes even larger into the evening. The atmosphere down south is very unstable and the ingredients are right for severe weather development very quickly.
Below is the outlook for today from the SPC:
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1108 AM CST THU MAR 01 2007 ...
A MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS LIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES. THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS ALSO FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TORNADOES...SOME WHICH MAY BE STRONG AND LONG TRACKED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THIS AREA IS IN A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE ALABAMA CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA EASTERN MISSISSIPPI SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES.
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH VERY STRONG JET LEVEL WINDS. AT THE SAME TIME...STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE RAPIDLY TRANSPORTING MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
SEVERE STORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS ALABAMA INTO GEORGIA. THESE STORMS WILL BE IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT STORMS TO ROTATE AND SPAWN LONG TRACKED...DAMAGING TORNADOES. STRONG TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE....WHILE WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THE SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST LATER TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY. ..WEISS/HALES.. 03/01/2007
Marching in like a LION!!
Well this is the first 3 hours of march and it marching in like a lion who has eaten in a few day and is anger. This storm system is anticipated to have a major Severe weather outbreak tomorrow. The Storms Predication center doesn't issue this type of map without a very strong feeling that something big will happen over the next 24 hours. 
A very high potential for severe weather exist within the Purple circle, a moderate in the red and slight chance in the green. Now don't be fooled with this map pretty much anywhere inside of the brown area could easily see some severe weather. I think around here we stand a good chance for a strong thunderstorm tonight.
If we get a Strong thunderstorm tonight we could be looking at more rainfall which is not good for the streams and rivers. The major concern is flooding and because of the amount of ice on the rivers we could see ice jam flooding where the ice breaks apart but literally jams(dams) up in a location and then after building enough water behind the jam it breaks allowing the water to rush downstream. The last noticeable case of this that occurred in the Pittsburgh area in 1996 when after the ice on the Oil City creek decided to jam and held for a significant period of time, holding back massive amounts of water. Then almost around the 6 pm news it let loose. Which meant flooding downriver in a few hours. This could happen again the different between that snow melt/rain event is that that one had temps that reached into the 60's and very dense fog developed over the Laurels which is a snow killer (eats snow rapidly), today we are only predicted to reach into the mid 50's.
As the weather develops I will update.
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
2/28 - 3/4
Before we read the five day forecast, a bit of history on today. Two years ago back in 2005 we had a nice size snowstorm fire up over the mid Atlantic. This storm system produced over 7 inches of snowfall in the Pittsburgh area (Pittsburgh International received 7, downtown however got a little less)but the four PSU campuses in Pittsburgh only two hour delayed. Yeah so it was tough traveling conditions to campus that day. But now the five day:
Today – Partly cloudy, High 41.
Tonight – Increasing Cloudiness, chance of showers toward daybreak, Low 32.
Tomorrow – Rain, heavy at times, cloudy, High 52.
Tomorrow Night – Rain and Showers around, cloudy, Low 38.
Friday – Cloudy a chance of rain, High 45.
Friday Night – Cloudy, a chance of a shower, Low 28.
Saturday – Cloudy, a chance of a shower or flurries, High 37.
Saturday Night – Cloudy, a chance of flurries, Low 22.
Sunday – Cloudy, a chance of flurries, High 32.
Sunday Night – Cloudy, a chance of flurries, Low 22.
Note: A chance of Flooding is beginning to show up on a few model sites for tomorrow night into Friday because of the rapid snow melting and the amount of rain we are expected to receive tomorrow into Friday. I will probably post a little bit later as more is understood about this situation.
Today – Partly cloudy, High 41.
Tonight – Increasing Cloudiness, chance of showers toward daybreak, Low 32.
Tomorrow – Rain, heavy at times, cloudy, High 52.
Tomorrow Night – Rain and Showers around, cloudy, Low 38.
Friday – Cloudy a chance of rain, High 45.
Friday Night – Cloudy, a chance of a shower, Low 28.
Saturday – Cloudy, a chance of a shower or flurries, High 37.
Saturday Night – Cloudy, a chance of flurries, Low 22.
Sunday – Cloudy, a chance of flurries, High 32.
Sunday Night – Cloudy, a chance of flurries, Low 22.
Note: A chance of Flooding is beginning to show up on a few model sites for tomorrow night into Friday because of the rapid snow melting and the amount of rain we are expected to receive tomorrow into Friday. I will probably post a little bit later as more is understood about this situation.
Tuesday, February 27, 2007
forecast 2/27 - 3/2
The next two days around our region looks good. After that a nice size rain system will move in. There might be a little bit of flooding around depending on how much snowfall is left on the ground north and in the mountains to the south.
Today - Cloudy with a chance of a shower or snow shower, High 38.
Tonight - Mostly Cloudy, Low 25.
Tomorrow - Partly cloudy, High 41.
Tomorrow Night - Becoming mostly cloudy, increasing chances of rain and snow showers after midnight, Low 33.
Thursday - Rain, heavy at times, Cloudy, High 52.
Thursday Night - Showers likely, Cloudy, Low 46.
Friday - Cloudy with a chance of showers, High 46.
Friday Night - Cloudy, a chance of snow showers or rain showers, Low 24.
Saturday - Cloudy, High 34.
Saturday Night - Cloudy, a chance of snow showers, Low 21.
Today - Cloudy with a chance of a shower or snow shower, High 38.
Tonight - Mostly Cloudy, Low 25.
Tomorrow - Partly cloudy, High 41.
Tomorrow Night - Becoming mostly cloudy, increasing chances of rain and snow showers after midnight, Low 33.
Thursday - Rain, heavy at times, Cloudy, High 52.
Thursday Night - Showers likely, Cloudy, Low 46.
Friday - Cloudy with a chance of showers, High 46.
Friday Night - Cloudy, a chance of snow showers or rain showers, Low 24.
Saturday - Cloudy, High 34.
Saturday Night - Cloudy, a chance of snow showers, Low 21.
Monday, February 26, 2007
Five day 2/26 - 3/2
Ok everybody so the storm that all the meteorologist and weather people around Pittsburgh and for that matter around the nation thought was going to blow up around the Pittsburgh area did not. Very lucky for us here in da burg. Not so lucky were the people down to the south. In the little town of Dumas, Arkansas
Source: http://www.city-data.com/
people are lucky to be alive. An estimated F-2 tornado packing winds between 158 - 207 mph with a half of a mile wide path of destruction, only 27 people were injured and no one lost their life. In total 18 confirmed tornadoes touchdowns on Saturday.
But anyhow here is how we are looking here in the Pittsburgh area for the next few days.
Today - Cloudy, with a chance of a snow flurries or rain shower. High 38.
Tonight - Cloudy, with a chance of flurries. Low 27.
Tuesday - Cloudy, with a chance of snow shower or rain shower. High 37.
Tuesday Night - Decreasing cloudiness, flurries likely North and East of the City. Low 24.
Wednesday - Partly Sunny. North of I-80 a chance of flurries and Showers. High 40.
Wednesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low 27.
Thursday - Increasing cloudiness, a chance of showers. High 52
Thursday Night - Rain developing, could be heavy at times, Cloudy. Low 37.
Friday- Showers likely. High 45.
Friday Night - Rain and snow mix. Low 31.
Saturday, February 24, 2007
Sunday's Dangerous weather
Overnight tonight and early tomorrow morning the Pittsburgh area will see a mix of Freezing rain, Sleet and snow. The Storm system is very powerful and will be producing a significant amount of frozen precipitation by tomorrow afternoon. Unlike the storm that we had two weeks ago this one will mostly be an ice event. Most places south of the city of Pittsburgh will see a change over from freezing rain to all rain then during the evening hours change back to a mix. North and east of the city, will see many hours of ice accumulation, this area will most likely not see a change over to all rain if it does it will be short lived.
So what is happening right now?
Over the Midwest a blizzard is occurring and down to the south severe weather that is producing tornadoes. The storms prediction center, (the national weather agency that is in charge of issuing the severe weather warnings and watches) has issued one of the most important advisory that they can issue. A PDS, which is a Particularly Dangerous Situation watch box. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0030.html
Now this means that severe weather is very likely and could pop up anywhere in that watch box because the atmosphere is so unstable.
The other area that is being affected by severe weather is the Midwest where numerous blizzard warning are in effect. A blizzard is defined by the national weather service as a storm with 20 degrees or lower temps. Sustained winds over 35mph, gust higher then that, and four inches of snow or higher over 12 hours forecasted.
So what is happening right now?
Over the Midwest a blizzard is occurring and down to the south severe weather that is producing tornadoes. The storms prediction center, (the national weather agency that is in charge of issuing the severe weather warnings and watches) has issued one of the most important advisory that they can issue. A PDS, which is a Particularly Dangerous Situation watch box. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0030.html
Now this means that severe weather is very likely and could pop up anywhere in that watch box because the atmosphere is so unstable.
The other area that is being affected by severe weather is the Midwest where numerous blizzard warning are in effect. A blizzard is defined by the national weather service as a storm with 20 degrees or lower temps. Sustained winds over 35mph, gust higher then that, and four inches of snow or higher over 12 hours forecasted.
Source: Weather.com
The whole area of severe weather will move to the east tomorrow and the storm will intensity rapidly overnight tonight.
The National weather service here in Pittsburgh has already issued a winter storm watch for the storm and will update it from time to time thought the day and into tomorrow. Travel around the area will be dangerous late tonight into tomorrow.
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