Wednesday, February 14, 2007

overnight and forecast

Overnight the sleet and freezing rain which overtook the region late yesterday afternoon after the first change from snow to sleet and freezing rain has changed back to snow. This snow will generally be light but we could pick up an addition 1 or 2 into this evening if we see a heavier band. The main story for the next few hours and days will be the extreme cold. Behind the low cold Canadien air will rush into the regions, this mixed with the winds gusts in excess of 40 mph will providing us with windchills well below zero.

Today - Snow showers, maybe another 1". Windy. Winds North 10 - 20 . High 20.

Tonight -Snow showers tapering to flurries. Winds Northwest 15 -20 gusting to 30.
Windchill vaules - 10 to -25

Tomorrow - Mostly Cloudy, windy. Winds west 10 -15 gusting to 25. High 15.
Windchill vaules - 5 to -15

Tomorrow Night - Mostly cloudy, windy. Winds west 10 - 15 gusting to 25. Low 8.
Windchill vaules - 10 to -20

Tuesday, February 13, 2007

Currently 7 pm

So a little under two weeks ago a little groundhog popped out and saw did not see his shadow. So we were supposed to have an “early spring”. Unfortunately Phil got this one wrong at least at the moment. Winter is in full force this evening across the Northeastern United State. Here in the Pittsburgh area we saw earlier a change over from snow to sleet and now to freezing rain and then will be going back to sleet then snow. The snowfall here in Allegheny County is up to about 7”. When I walked outside we have about a quarter of inch of ice on top of the snow. This could cause some really big havoc and it seems to be affecting the public transit system
here in the southern half of Allegheny County. The mayor of Pittsburgh has even asked people to stay home if possible. The city council is delayed at least an hour on Wednesday morning.

The freezing rain is primary over Allegheny County and south. Significant ice is occurring which could, very well mean, that a people around the regions could lose power because of the ice weight on the lines and trees that could fall on them.



To the north of Allegheny County heavy snowfall will happen and is already occurring.



Now I have heard no discussion of this snowfall spreading southward into the Pittsburgh area as the transition from mix back to snow occurs. That could make everything very interesting.

The second half of the system will be coming over the next few hours; this second half will be when numerous things happen.

First the transition of the mixed precipitation changes back to snow, heavy at time.

Second when the Low off the eastern seaboard takes over and we begin to see wrap around precipitation. I the 1 am forecast surface map, pay attention to that low over South Carolina.



We see that on the next forecasted surface map at 1 pm the low off the coast takes the primary role.


After that the winds will become a very critical player even before this transition takes place. The winds will gusting above 40 mph overnight and into Wednesday. The temperature will also drop behind the system. When we could feel windchills below zero as early as mid day Wednesday. We could still see an addition 4 - 6 inches of snowfall before tomorrow evening.

1 pm update

Here in Pittsburgh as I watched the noon news on line from wtae and on the tv kdka I noticed that they both had 2 weatherpersons this afternoon. This is interesting by they used both of them on air. So we know that thing is big. I have just measured the snow outside I have three inches here in O’Hara Township. We are looking for more snow thought the day. The Pittsburgh International airport is running on time still that will probably chance later with the change over to sleet and possibly freezing rain. That cannot be said for our neighbors to the east. Philly is having a 350 minute delay which is almost 6 hours!!


From the weather channel:

This will just get worst at the airports. Around the Pittsburgh area we will again see that change over to sleet by 5 pm. This is the absoule worst time that it could happen. Rush hour will be in full swing and this is horrible news for anyone around the region. If there is over 1/2" of sleetfall then a sleet warning will be posted this is very rare but could happen today into tonight.

So what is sleet?

Sleet is snow that partial has melted in the mid levels of the atmophere. The graphic clearly shows that the snow melts in that shallow warm layer.

From: http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gl)/guides/mtr/cld/prcp/zr/sleet.rxml

Again the snow heavy at times will change over to snow then will change back later.

4 Am update

Yeah the time is right it's four am and I'm still up which can only mean one thing, A major storm is near the area. The storm that has been talked about for the past few days is reaching the Pittsburgh area. The National weather service has updated the winter storm warning to include more information and advice to the public.

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY.

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH. THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS TO THE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF SLEET IS LIKELY ON TUESDAY EVENING...WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FROM PITTSBURGH ON SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE IF A LARGE AMOUNT OF ICE ACCUMULATES ON POWER LINES.

TRAVEL ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS DISCOURAGED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON THIS INCOMING WINTER STORM.

The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh doesn't often use this harsh of language. But I agree with them that it is critical that driving is discouraged.

Currently:

The radar is showing that Snow has began to push into the region. Note:In the south you will notice a strong line of severe storms are sparking some fears of tornadic activity in the great New Orleans area.

The current surface map is showing the Low pressure system responsible for all this activity is still centered over Arkansas.


By 1 pm tomorrow the low moves towards the Northeast and heavy snow continues.

By the evening rush hour we will be looking at Snow, Sleet, and Freezing Rain, I think we will only see this for a few hours eventually changing back over to heavy snow. The primary factor are the temperatures both at the surface and the mid levels of the atmosphere as to how much snow does melt and change in the mid levels to sleet and freezing rain. (Rain will come down but back the surface is just so cold it freezing very quickly) Depending on the Freezing rain and sleet combined with the winds on Wednesday morning we could be looking at quite a few power outages. I will try to update before 1 pm.

Monday, February 12, 2007

Weather update 3 pm

Dennis' 3 pm update

The National weather service has posted some new information on this storm system in the form of a Winter Storm Warning:
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM ESTWEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM ESTWEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A WINTER STORM IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WILLSPREAD SNOW INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ONTUESDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW TO START AROUND THE MORGANTOWN AND ZANESVILLE AREASAROUND BETWEEN 300 AND 500 AM...THEN IN THE PITTSBURGH...WHEELINGAND NEW PHILADELPHIA AREAS BETWEEN 500 AM AND 700 AM AND SPREADNORTHWARD TO PLACES LIKE GROVE CITY...AND PUNXSUTAWNEY BEFORE900 AM TUESDAY MORNING. IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTEDTO REMAIN ALL SNOW WHERE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATEBY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD INCLUDE PLACES LIKE DUBOIS...OILCITY AND CLARION. IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...IN PLACES LIKEMORGANTOWN AND ZANESVILLE...THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SLEETAND FREEZING RAIN DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 2 TO 4 INCHES COULDACCUMULATE BEFORE CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. APROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAYNIGHT. MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SLEET OR ONE QUARTER INCH OFICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CHESTNUT AND LAUREL RIDGES OFWESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA...4 TO 8 INCHESOF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZINGRAIN DURING TUESDAY EVENING. IN GARRETT COUNTY MARYLAND AND TUCKER AND PRESTON COUNTIES OFWEST VIRGINIA... 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BEFOREMIXING WITH SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN DURING LATE TUESDAYAFTERNOON. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ISEXPECTED. MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SLEET OR ONE QUARTER INCH OFICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IN AREAS LIKE WHEELING...PITTSBURGH AND GREENSBURG...3 TO 5INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET BYTUESDAY EVENING. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET COULD OCCUR BEFOREMIXING WITH FREEZING RAIN. MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SLEET OR ONEQUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IN AREAS LIKE NEW CASTLE...BUTLER...KITTANNING AND INDIANA...4 TO8 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET ANDFREEZING RAIN TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAYEVENING. THEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNINGCOLDER AIR AND A PERIOD OF SNOW WILL RETURN WITH ADDITIONALACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OR MORE IN MANY AREAS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONALACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN ALL AREAS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINLY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM AND THEAMOUNT OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE IN MOST AREAS. ANY MIXTURE OFSLEET, FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN WILL DRAMATICALLY REDUCE TOTALACCUMULATIONS. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERYHAZARDOUS. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE IF A LARGE AMOUNT OF ICEACCUMULATES ON POWER LINES.

This discussion of the winter storm is pretty much stating what we have know for the past few days and that is a great deal less than we would like to know. The uncertainty of the track is a huge player in this weather storm. Where the temperature in the mid layer of the atmosphere is above freezing and where it is below. A few of the weather models, (computer generated maps that process numerical information and data to create the scenarios in which we have to forecast) are predicting a small time when at the mid levels of the atmosphere it will go above freezing. There are a lot of factors in play, the temperature of the mid levels of the atmosphere and low levels (surface) are primary factors in how much of the precipitation will be snow, sleet or freezing rain. The time of this will also be interesting because it will start snow (heavy at times) during the early morning/overnight hours tonight. And this will continue into the day tomorrow, then it might chance over to sleet and freezing rain. I think that this will be a very short lived period of above freezing temperature that high up. Also I think because we will be pushing 5 – 6 pm before the change over occurs the night time cooling will help factor in. Thus changing it back to snow quickly. Again I believe that we are in for up to a foot of snow in some parts of southwestern PA.



Some locations might even go above a foot of snow before all is said and done with. Accu-weather graphic does the system justice as it blows off the eastern coast and we get some addition precipitation out of the storm system.


Source: Accuweather.com



Tonight –Snow showers, otherwise mostly cloudy. Low 19

Tomorrow – Snow developing before dawn, Heavy at times, mixing with sleet and freezing rain during the late afternoon. High 23.

Tomorrow Night – Sleet, Freezing changing back to snow, heavy at times. Low 18.

Wednesday – Snow, tapering to snow showers during the afternoon. High 21.

Wednesday Night – Snow showers, otherwise mostly cloudy turning colder, Low 6!! We might again see windchill vaules below zero!!

Let it SNOW!!!

11 am update

As promised here is the before noon update:
We will be seeing a few snow showers around this evening this is ahead of the bulk of the precipitation that is down in the central plains.
A high is still in control of the region and will moving off the eastern coast within the next few hours. The low that we are concerned with is over Western OK and far Northern portion of the state of Texas.


As the low begins to strengthen today there is a threat of severe weather for the LA, Eastern OK and Texas. Check the National Predication center for updates.
As the low begins to move up across the southern United State and begin to pull a little north the precipitation in the Pittsburgh will begin. This should begin towards daybreak tomorrow morning. I think we will see around the Pittsburgh, 2-4 before lunch time tomorrow. Their is quite a bit of uncertain however with this system because if the track moves one way or the other it could be very heavy snow for Pittsburgh or heavy snow changing over to Snow, Sleet and Freezing rain then changing but over to snow. This is what I believe will happen south of the Pittsburgh area.

I think this map to your left is a little misleading. The heaviest snow I believe will shift eastward from where Accu-weather has put it. The wintry mix will happen but south of the city we might get an hour or mix and then change right back into snow.
I think that Downtown will see Pittsburgh the 6 -8", South of Downtown 4-8" and North and East of the city 8 -12". The laurels will probably receive a foot out of this storm. These have a chance to go either down or up in accumulation depending on the track of the Low. I will update before 3 pm.

Total Snowfall projections

By now everyone knows that a nice side winter storm is moving our way. This storm will become very powerful. Somewhere within a few miles of the Pittsburgh are will see over a foot of snowfall. I think in downtown Pittsburgh - 6-8", South of Pittsburgh 4-8" and North and East of the city 8 -12". Some of the storm might produce some sleet and freezing rain especially points south of the city. This will be on Tuesday Late afternoon early evening. All these numbers are based on models produced at 7 pm (0 Z) time so I will be doing a full report of this weather event by noon. And doing more throughout the day. Maybe just maybe PSU BR, MK, and NK will get an off day. I'm doubtful unless we get up towards a foot.

Winter weather watch out of the Pittsburgh NWS

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH SAYS A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY CAUSE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN 6 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...PARTICULARLY FROM ZANESVILLE OHIO AND PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA NORTHWARD TO INTERSTATE 80. AREAS SOUTH OF ZANESVILLEAND PITTSBURGH CAN ALSO GET A COATING OF ICE ON TOP OF THE SNOW...ASWARMER AIR ALOFT GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY.ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STORM TRACK ANDHENCE DETAILS ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND ICE FOR INDIVIDUALLOCATIONS...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS CONFIDENT THAT THISWINTER STORM SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOW AT TIMES AND PAVEMENTS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...EVEN ICY. SO PLAN YOUR TRAVELS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACCORDINGLY...AND CHECK FOR UPDATES ON THIS WINTER STORM SITUATION.

Accuweather forecasted snowfall totals:

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=0