Wednesday, February 14, 2007
overnight and forecast
Today - Snow showers, maybe another 1". Windy. Winds North 10 - 20 . High 20.
Tonight -Snow showers tapering to flurries. Winds Northwest 15 -20 gusting to 30.
Windchill vaules - 10 to -25
Tomorrow - Mostly Cloudy, windy. Winds west 10 -15 gusting to 25. High 15.
Windchill vaules - 5 to -15
Tomorrow Night - Mostly cloudy, windy. Winds west 10 - 15 gusting to 25. Low 8.
Windchill vaules - 10 to -20
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Currently 7 pm
here in the southern half of Allegheny County. The mayor of Pittsburgh has even asked people to stay home if possible. The city council is delayed at least an hour on Wednesday morning.
The freezing rain is primary over Allegheny County and south. Significant ice is occurring which could, very well mean, that a people around the regions could lose power because of the ice weight on the lines and trees that could fall on them.
To the north of Allegheny County heavy snowfall will happen and is already occurring.

The second half of the system will be coming over the next few hours; this second half will be when numerous things happen.
First the transition of the mixed precipitation changes back to snow, heavy at time.
Second when the Low off the eastern seaboard takes over and we begin to see wrap around precipitation. I the 1 am forecast surface map, pay attention to that low over South Carolina.

We see that on the next forecasted surface map at 1 pm the low off the coast takes the primary role.

1 pm update
From the weather channel:

This will just get worst at the airports. Around the Pittsburgh area we will again see that change over to sleet by 5 pm. This is the absoule worst time that it could happen. Rush hour will be in full swing and this is horrible news for anyone around the region. If there is over 1/2" of sleetfall then a sleet warning will be posted this is very rare but could happen today into tonight.
So what is sleet?
Sleet is snow that partial has melted in the mid levels of the atmophere. The graphic clearly shows that the snow melts in that shallow warm layer.

From: http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gl)/guides/mtr/cld/prcp/zr/sleet.rxml
Again the snow heavy at times will change over to snow then will change back later.
4 Am update
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY.
A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AN ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SNOW WILL MIX WITH SLEET BY LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME ISOLATED FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT. 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH. THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER AREAS TO THE NORTH OF PITTSBURGH.IN ADDITION...A PERIOD OF SLEET IS LIKELY ON TUESDAY EVENING...WITH FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FROM PITTSBURGH ON SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES.
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE IF A LARGE AMOUNT OF ICE ACCUMULATES ON POWER LINES.
TRAVEL ON TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS DISCOURAGED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON THIS INCOMING WINTER STORM.
The National Weather Service in Pittsburgh doesn't often use this harsh of language. But I agree with them that it is critical that driving is discouraged.
Currently:
The radar is showing that Snow has began to push into the region. Note:In the south you will notice a strong line of severe storms are sparking some fears of tornadic activity in the great New Orleans area.
The current surface map is showing the Low pressure system responsible for all this activity is still centered over Arkansas.
By 1 pm tomorrow the low moves towards the Northeast and heavy snow continues.

By the evening rush hour we will be looking at Snow, Sleet, and Freezing Rain, I think we will only see this for a few hours eventually changing back over to heavy snow. The primary factor are the temperatures both at the surface and the mid levels of the atmosphere as to how much snow does melt and change in the mid levels to sleet and freezing rain. (Rain will come down but back the surface is just so cold it freezing very quickly) Depending on the Freezing rain and sleet combined with the winds on Wednesday morning we could be looking at quite a few power outages. I will try to update before 1 pm.
Monday, February 12, 2007
Weather update 3 pm
The National weather service has posted some new information on this storm system in the form of a Winter Storm Warning:
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM ESTWEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM ESTWEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A WINTER STORM IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WILLSPREAD SNOW INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ONTUESDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW TO START AROUND THE MORGANTOWN AND ZANESVILLE AREASAROUND BETWEEN 300 AND 500 AM...THEN IN THE PITTSBURGH...WHEELINGAND NEW PHILADELPHIA AREAS BETWEEN 500 AM AND 700 AM AND SPREADNORTHWARD TO PLACES LIKE GROVE CITY...AND PUNXSUTAWNEY BEFORE900 AM TUESDAY MORNING. IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTEDTO REMAIN ALL SNOW WHERE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATEBY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD INCLUDE PLACES LIKE DUBOIS...OILCITY AND CLARION. IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...IN PLACES LIKEMORGANTOWN AND ZANESVILLE...THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SLEETAND FREEZING RAIN DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 2 TO 4 INCHES COULDACCUMULATE BEFORE CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. APROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAYNIGHT. MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SLEET OR ONE QUARTER INCH OFICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CHESTNUT AND LAUREL RIDGES OFWESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA...4 TO 8 INCHESOF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZINGRAIN DURING TUESDAY EVENING. IN GARRETT COUNTY MARYLAND AND TUCKER AND PRESTON COUNTIES OFWEST VIRGINIA... 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BEFOREMIXING WITH SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN DURING LATE TUESDAYAFTERNOON. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ISEXPECTED. MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SLEET OR ONE QUARTER INCH OFICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IN AREAS LIKE WHEELING...PITTSBURGH AND GREENSBURG...3 TO 5INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET BYTUESDAY EVENING. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET COULD OCCUR BEFOREMIXING WITH FREEZING RAIN. MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SLEET OR ONEQUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IN AREAS LIKE NEW CASTLE...BUTLER...KITTANNING AND INDIANA...4 TO8 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET ANDFREEZING RAIN TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAYEVENING. THEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNINGCOLDER AIR AND A PERIOD OF SNOW WILL RETURN WITH ADDITIONALACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OR MORE IN MANY AREAS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONALACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN ALL AREAS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINLY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM AND THEAMOUNT OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE IN MOST AREAS. ANY MIXTURE OFSLEET, FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN WILL DRAMATICALLY REDUCE TOTALACCUMULATIONS. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERYHAZARDOUS. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE IF A LARGE AMOUNT OF ICEACCUMULATES ON POWER LINES.
This discussion of the winter storm is pretty much stating what we have know for the past few days and that is a great deal less than we would like to know. The uncertainty of the track is a huge player in this weather storm. Where the temperature in the mid layer of the atmosphere is above freezing and where it is below. A few of the weather models, (computer generated maps that process numerical information and data to create the scenarios in which we have to forecast) are predicting a small time when at the mid levels of the atmosphere it will go above freezing. There are a lot of factors in play, the temperature of the mid levels of the atmosphere and low levels (surface) are primary factors in how much of the precipitation will be snow, sleet or freezing rain. The time of this will also be interesting because it will start snow (heavy at times) during the early morning/overnight hours tonight. And this will continue into the day tomorrow, then it might chance over to sleet and freezing rain. I think that this will be a very short lived period of above freezing temperature that high up. Also I think because we will be pushing 5 – 6 pm before the change over occurs the night time cooling will help factor in. Thus changing it back to snow quickly. Again I believe that we are in for up to a foot of snow in some parts of southwestern PA.
Some locations might even go above a foot of snow before all is said and done with. Accu-weather graphic does the system justice as it blows off the eastern coast and we get some addition precipitation out of the storm system.Source: Accuweather.com
Tonight –Snow showers, otherwise mostly cloudy. Low 19
Tomorrow – Snow developing before dawn, Heavy at times, mixing with sleet and freezing rain during the late afternoon. High 23.
Tomorrow Night – Sleet, Freezing changing back to snow, heavy at times. Low 18.
Wednesday – Snow, tapering to snow showers during the afternoon. High 21.
Wednesday Night – Snow showers, otherwise mostly cloudy turning colder, Low 6!! We might again see windchill vaules below zero!!
Let it SNOW!!!
11 am update
As promised here is the before noon update:Total Snowfall projections
Winter weather watch out of the Pittsburgh NWS
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH SAYS A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY CAUSE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN 6 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...PARTICULARLY FROM ZANESVILLE OHIO AND PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA NORTHWARD TO INTERSTATE 80. AREAS SOUTH OF ZANESVILLEAND PITTSBURGH CAN ALSO GET A COATING OF ICE ON TOP OF THE SNOW...ASWARMER AIR ALOFT GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY.ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STORM TRACK ANDHENCE DETAILS ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND ICE FOR INDIVIDUALLOCATIONS...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS CONFIDENT THAT THISWINTER STORM SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOW AT TIMES AND PAVEMENTS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...EVEN ICY. SO PLAN YOUR TRAVELS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACCORDINGLY...AND CHECK FOR UPDATES ON THIS WINTER STORM SITUATION.
Accuweather forecasted snowfall totals:

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=0

