Weather update 3 pm

Dennis' 3 pm update

The National weather service has posted some new information on this storm system in the form of a Winter Storm Warning:
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM ESTWEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM ESTWEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A WINTER STORM IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND WILLSPREAD SNOW INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ONTUESDAY. EXPECT THE SNOW TO START AROUND THE MORGANTOWN AND ZANESVILLE AREASAROUND BETWEEN 300 AND 500 AM...THEN IN THE PITTSBURGH...WHEELINGAND NEW PHILADELPHIA AREAS BETWEEN 500 AM AND 700 AM AND SPREADNORTHWARD TO PLACES LIKE GROVE CITY...AND PUNXSUTAWNEY BEFORE900 AM TUESDAY MORNING. IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTEDTO REMAIN ALL SNOW WHERE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATEBY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD INCLUDE PLACES LIKE DUBOIS...OILCITY AND CLARION. IN NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...IN PLACES LIKEMORGANTOWN AND ZANESVILLE...THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SLEETAND FREEZING RAIN DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 2 TO 4 INCHES COULDACCUMULATE BEFORE CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. APROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAYNIGHT. MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SLEET OR ONE QUARTER INCH OFICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CHESTNUT AND LAUREL RIDGES OFWESTMORELAND AND FAYETTE COUNTIES IN PENNSYLVANIA...4 TO 8 INCHESOF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET AND FREEZINGRAIN DURING TUESDAY EVENING. IN GARRETT COUNTY MARYLAND AND TUCKER AND PRESTON COUNTIES OFWEST VIRGINIA... 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BEFOREMIXING WITH SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN DURING LATE TUESDAYAFTERNOON. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ISEXPECTED. MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SLEET OR ONE QUARTER INCH OFICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IN AREAS LIKE WHEELING...PITTSBURGH AND GREENSBURG...3 TO 5INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE BEFORE MIXING WITH SLEET BYTUESDAY EVENING. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLEET COULD OCCUR BEFOREMIXING WITH FREEZING RAIN. MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH OF SLEET OR ONEQUARTER INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. IN AREAS LIKE NEW CASTLE...BUTLER...KITTANNING AND INDIANA...4 TO8 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET ANDFREEZING RAIN TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION LATE TUESDAYEVENING. THEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNINGCOLDER AIR AND A PERIOD OF SNOW WILL RETURN WITH ADDITIONALACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OR MORE IN MANY AREAS. WEDNESDAY WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONALACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN ALL AREAS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINLY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM AND THEAMOUNT OF SNOW...SLEET AND ICE IN MOST AREAS. ANY MIXTURE OFSLEET, FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN WILL DRAMATICALLY REDUCE TOTALACCUMULATIONS. A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERYHAZARDOUS. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE IF A LARGE AMOUNT OF ICEACCUMULATES ON POWER LINES.

This discussion of the winter storm is pretty much stating what we have know for the past few days and that is a great deal less than we would like to know. The uncertainty of the track is a huge player in this weather storm. Where the temperature in the mid layer of the atmosphere is above freezing and where it is below. A few of the weather models, (computer generated maps that process numerical information and data to create the scenarios in which we have to forecast) are predicting a small time when at the mid levels of the atmosphere it will go above freezing. There are a lot of factors in play, the temperature of the mid levels of the atmosphere and low levels (surface) are primary factors in how much of the precipitation will be snow, sleet or freezing rain. The time of this will also be interesting because it will start snow (heavy at times) during the early morning/overnight hours tonight. And this will continue into the day tomorrow, then it might chance over to sleet and freezing rain. I think that this will be a very short lived period of above freezing temperature that high up. Also I think because we will be pushing 5 – 6 pm before the change over occurs the night time cooling will help factor in. Thus changing it back to snow quickly. Again I believe that we are in for up to a foot of snow in some parts of southwestern PA.



Some locations might even go above a foot of snow before all is said and done with. Accu-weather graphic does the system justice as it blows off the eastern coast and we get some addition precipitation out of the storm system.


Source: Accuweather.com



Tonight –Snow showers, otherwise mostly cloudy. Low 19

Tomorrow – Snow developing before dawn, Heavy at times, mixing with sleet and freezing rain during the late afternoon. High 23.

Tomorrow Night – Sleet, Freezing changing back to snow, heavy at times. Low 18.

Wednesday – Snow, tapering to snow showers during the afternoon. High 21.

Wednesday Night – Snow showers, otherwise mostly cloudy turning colder, Low 6!! We might again see windchill vaules below zero!!

Let it SNOW!!!

11 am update

As promised here is the before noon update:

We will be seeing a few snow showers around this evening this is ahead of the bulk of the precipitation that is down in the central plains.

A high is still in control of the region and will moving off the eastern coast within the next few hours. The low that we are concerned with is over Western OK and far Northern portion of the state of Texas.

As the low begins to strengthen today there is a threat of severe weather for the LA, Eastern OK and Texas. Check the National Predication center for updates.

As the low begins to move up across the southern United State and begin to pull a little north the precipitation in the Pittsburgh will begin. This should begin towards daybreak tomorrow morning. I think we will see around the Pittsburgh, 2-4 before lunch time tomorrow. Their is quite a bit of uncertain however with this system because if the track moves one way or the other it could be very heavy snow for Pittsburgh or heavy snow changing over to Snow, Sleet and Freezing rain then changing but over to snow. This is what I believe will happen south of the Pittsburgh area.

I think this map to your left is a little misleading. The heaviest snow I believe will shift eastward from where Accu-weather has put it. The wintry mix will happen but south of the city we might get an hour or mix and then change right back into snow.

I think that Downtown will see Pittsburgh the 6 -8", South of Downtown 4-8" and North and East of the city 8 -12". The laurels will probably receive a foot out of this storm. These have a chance to go either down or up in accumulation depending on the track of the Low. I will update before 3 pm.

The fronts maps: http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/LoadPage.aspx

The last map: http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=1

Total Snowfall projections

By now everyone knows that a nice side winter storm is moving our way. This storm will become very powerful. Somewhere within a few miles of the Pittsburgh are will see over a foot of snowfall. I think in downtown Pittsburgh - 6-8", South of Pittsburgh 4-8" and North and East of the city 8 -12". Some of the storm might produce some sleet and freezing rain especially points south of the city. This will be on Tuesday Late afternoon early evening. All these numbers are based on models produced at 7 pm (0 Z) time so I will be doing a full report of this weather event by noon. And doing more throughout the day. Maybe just maybe PSU BR, MK, and NK will get an off day. I'm doubtful unless we get up towards a foot.

Winter weather watch out of the Pittsburgh NWS

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH SAYS A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MAY CAUSE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF MORE THAN 6 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY...PARTICULARLY FROM ZANESVILLE OHIO AND PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA NORTHWARD TO INTERSTATE 80. AREAS SOUTH OF ZANESVILLEAND PITTSBURGH CAN ALSO GET A COATING OF ICE ON TOP OF THE SNOW...ASWARMER AIR ALOFT GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY.ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STORM TRACK ANDHENCE DETAILS ABOUT THE AMOUNT OF SNOW AND ICE FOR INDIVIDUALLOCATIONS...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS CONFIDENT THAT THISWINTER STORM SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOW AT TIMES AND PAVEMENTS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...EVEN ICY. SO PLAN YOUR TRAVELS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACCORDINGLY...AND CHECK FOR UPDATES ON THIS WINTER STORM SITUATION.

Accuweather forecasted snowfall totals:

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=0

Winter has come with a mean look in its face. Over the past few days here in Pittsburgh we have seen below normal temperatures (the normal high for this time of year is in the mid 30’s) the high on Monday 9 the low on Monday morning was -4 and the windchills were well below zero all day. So we know that the temperatures are finally getting to feel somewhat like normal, (factor in that most of the winter we have been above normal and the last few days we have been below). Now precipitation is a little below normal, and we might get a bit of snow next week. I have been trying to watch this storm since Tuesday night between Mr. Psu rehearsals. But this will not be like the snowstorm over Upstate New York. They have seen over 100 inches of snow and still except more. This is where these two storms the one that can develop over the weekend and bring the mid-Atlantic a significant snowstorm or a very light snowfall and the one in upstate New York. This all is depended on the location of a high pressure system (H).

Accuweather map 1

If the high is that far north on the accu-weather map then the snow will move into the Pittsburgh area.

Accuweather map 2

You can see how the low (L) moves through the southern half of VA on early Tuesday morning were I except it to max out and thus produce a snow event over the Pittsburgh area. I will be updating a few more time over the weekend as all weather people including my weather self gets a better handle on this!!

LET IT SNOW!!


Maps:
http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=0

http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/index.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0

Weather Forecast 2/5 - 2/9 Brr cold!!!

So we are in the midst of a very cold arctic blast. Now usually the low for today is 20 this morning at 7:47 we reached the low of -4. That is 24 below where we should be and 28 degrees cold than last year's low of 24. But this is not as bad as it could have been back in 1918 they had a cold spell today that produced a morning low of -11. This morning and even for tomorrow morning many school's have cancelled classes.

In Pittsburgh we are now that bad off because in some towns in Upstate New York they received colder temperatures and snow up to 18" worth. Now image clearing that in this cold weather!! But let's take a look at the forecast.

Tonight - Clear skies. Windy. Low -3 Windchill values - 10 to -20

Tomorrow - Increasing cloudiness, chance of an afternoon snow shower. Winds decreasing. High 15. Windchill values -15 to -20

Tomorrow Night - Mostly Cloudy, increasing chances of snow, heavy at times. Low 10.

Wednesday - Mostly Cloudy, Snow showers. High 19

Wednesday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low 8

Thursday - Partly Cloudy. High 22.

Thursday Night - Mostly Clear. Low 7.

Friday - Mostly Sunny. High 23.

Friday Night - Partly Cloudy. Low 11.

Happy National Weatherperson's DAY!!

Groundhog Day forecast/ Weatherman Lane's forecast

So Phil did not see his shadow this morning (early spring). Nor didn't any of the other groundhog in North American as of 10 am this according to groundhog central.
Well they must not have been checking the prevailing weather forecast for the next few days. We are going to see a deep cold snap over the next few days with temperatures as highs only in the single digits. It's going to be downright cold over much of the nation over the next few days. I except Monday and tuesday mornings many school districts will be two hour delaying or even cancelling because of the cold polar airmass with the below zero windchills. This is the coldest air we have felt since mid January 1994!! Ok, so here is what the Pittsburgh area we will see:

Today: Snow Showers could be heavy at times. 1 - 3 inches of accumulation. Winds West 5 -10 mph. High 32.

Tonight: Scattered snow showers, otherwise cloudy. Low 12.

Tomorrow: Cloudy with Snow showers developing, accumulation 1 -2". Winds West 10 -15 mph, windchill values 5 above to 5 below. High 20.

Tomorrow Night: Mostly cloudy with flurries. Winds West increasing to 15 - 20 mph, windchill values zero to 10 below (0 to - 10). Low 7.

Sunday: Snow showers, winds west 15 - 20. Windchill 2 above to 8 below (2 to -8). High 12.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, a chance of a flurry, LOW 0!! Windchill values (0 to -20).

Monday: Mostly cloudy, a chance of a flurry. Windy. High 8. Windchill values (5 to - 15)

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy snow showers. Windy. Low 2. Windchill values (0 to - 20)

Tuesday: Snow showers, not as windy High 11. Windchill values 5 above to 10 below (5 to -10)

Tuesday Night: Snow showers turning to flurries, Low 3. Windchill values 0 to 15 below (0 to -15)

Groundhog Day '07 preview

Groundhog Day '07 preview

In just a few hours a little animal will pop out of his hole to the northeast of Pittsburgh, the animal will have tons of media coverage on what he has to say. Because this is not any old animal nope this is the greatest weatherman that ever was, Punxsutawney Phil!!

Groundhog day is the day when the weather forecasting has gone to the wild, well almost. Groundhog day has many traditions and even can trace it’s origins back into the church. February 2nd is the day on the church year called candlemas, this is a day when the priest would bless the candles to be used during the church year. He would give a candle to every family to light their homes for the rest of the winter because today the second of February is the half way point between the Winter Solstice and the Spring Equinox. A European tradition stated that, “If the sun came out February 2, halfway between winter and spring, it meant six more weeks of wintry weather.”

The tradition began in 1886 in the town of Punxsutawney. The name given to the groundhog was “Punxsutawney Phil” who is the Prognosticator of Prognosticators, and Weather Prophet Extraordinary.’’ The people who continue the tradition today is a group called the inner circle of the Punxsutawney groundhog club. Only one can speak the language of the groundhog (Groundhogese), this is the current president of the inner circle who tells the world Phil’s forecast.

At this year’s event a new meteorologist hall of fame will be dedicated. This hall of fame is meant to spotlight meteorologist who “the important role these individuals have on our daily lives.” A new meteorologist will be added every year to add to the tradition of groundhog day.

Last year he appeared with a terrible towel because the great Prognosticator called for two things last year six more weeks of winter and Steelers Superbowl victory three nights latter, both of which came true!!

Phil’s Records
shadow (six more weeks of winter) - 96
No shadow – 14
No records - 9

Happy Groundhog Day!!!

Picture Source: http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=6